Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates nudged higher yesterday. Although there have been minor ups and downs since Nov. 10, when they fell dramatically, they’ve pretty much canceled one another out.
This morning’s better-than-expected gross domestic product figures may mean that mortgage rates today might move higher. But that early trend may not survive the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed|
|Conventional 30 year fixed||6.632%||6.654%||+0.12%|
|Conventional 15 year fixed|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||5.797%||5.83%||-0.01%|
|Conventional 20 year fixed|
|Conventional 20 year fixed||6.53%||6.589%||+0.03%|
|Conventional 10 year fixed|
|Conventional 10 year fixed||6.362%||6.465%||+0.16%|
|30 year fixed FHA|
|30 year fixed FHA||6.376%||7.154%||+0.1%|
|15 year fixed FHA|
|15 year fixed FHA||6.033%||6.561%||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed VA|
|30 year fixed VA||6.208%||6.439%||+0.03%|
|15 year fixed VA|
|15 year fixed VA||6.322%||6.682%||+0.07%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.
If a series of events align correctly, it’s possible that mortgage rates could hold steady or fall over the next few weeks. But I’m afraid they’re more likely to rise.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- LOCK if closing in 45 days
- LOCK if closing in 60 days
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasury notes climbed to 3.78% from 3.74%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
- Major stock indexes were mostly rising soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
- Oil prices rose to $80.87 from $79.24 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
- Gold prices increased to $1,772 from $1,766 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 68 from 60 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
- When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
As I reported in more detail yesterday, we’re standing by for a couple of important economic reports tomorrow and on Friday.
One’s the October personal consumption expenditures price index, which is an important measure of inflation (Thursday). And the other is November’s jobs report, formally known as the employment situation report (Friday).
Each is more than capable of moving mortgage rates. However, we won’t know the direction those might take until the data are published.
Secondary reports today
Three reports of secondary importance are out today. I say “secondary” because they rarely move mortgage rates far. But, with markets feeling edgy, it’s always possible they could this time, though only if they contain unexpected numbers. Those three are:
- October job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — A good indicator of how the jobs market is holding up but is growing a bit stale by now. This was published too late this morning for us to report the data
- Real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter — We’ve already had the first reading of this, and today’s report is the first of two subsequent ones. This morning’s numbers were appreciably better than expected
- ADP employment report — This measures only public-sector jobs. But it’s sometimes seen as a bellwether for Friday’s official and much more important employment situation report. This morning’s data were worse than expected
Overall, today’s good GDP figures seem so far to be outweighing the bad ones in the ADP report. And that’s why mortgage rates were rising earlier. But the JOLTS numbers just might change that later in the day.
For more background, please read the weekend edition of this report.
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie’s Nov. 23 (early for Thanksgiving) report put that same weekly average at 6.58%, almost imperceptibly down from the previous week’s 6.61%.
Recently, Freddie stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also moved later the time of day at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And, from now on, we'll be updating this section on Fridays.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on Nov. 22, the MBA’s on Nov. 23 and Freddie’s on Oct. 21. Freddie now publishes its forecasts quarterly and its figures can quickly become stale.
Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Find your lowest rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.