Mortgage and refinance rates today, Nov. 25, 2022

November 25, 2022 - 6 min read

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Once again, average mortgage rates barely moved on Wednesday (markets were closed yesterday), just inching lower. They’ve been becalmed since their big drop on Nov. 10.

By approaching 10 a.m., markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might rise. But that could change later in the day.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed
Conventional 30 year fixed 6.46% 6.488% +0.01%
Conventional 15 year fixed
Conventional 15 year fixed 5.826% 5.86% -0.01%
Conventional 20 year fixed
Conventional 20 year fixed 6.421% 6.469% Unchanged
Conventional 10 year fixed
Conventional 10 year fixed 6.39% 6.488% +0.06%
30 year fixed FHA
30 year fixed FHA 6.208% 6.981% +0.03%
15 year fixed FHA
15 year fixed FHA 6.039% 6.567% -0.01%
30 year fixed VA
30 year fixed VA 6.561% 6.799% -0.01%
15 year fixed VA
15 year fixed VA 6.25% 6.61% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don't lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Will mortgage rates rise or fall over the next four months? I can’t be sure, but I suspect they’re more likely to move higher.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • LOCK if closing in 30 days
  • LOCK if closing in 45 days
  • LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time on Wednesday, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasury notes increased to 3.72% from 3.70%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
  • Major stock indexes were mixed soon after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
  • Oil prices inched up to $78.19 from $78.15 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
  • Gold prices increased to $1,750 from $1,737 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — edged lower to 63 from 65 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
  4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Markets were closed yesterday. And no economic reports are due to be published today. So, it’s looking likely (though not inevitable) that we’ll be able to call this week another calm one for mortgage rates. Enjoy the break in volatility!

With luck, this becalmed period will last at least until Dec. 1, which is when the next important inflation report (personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for November) is scheduled for release. After that, we’ll get the consumer price index (CPI) for November on Dec. 13 and the next Federal Reserve rate hike on Dec. 14 (see below).

Those are the events most likely to trigger significant movements in mortgage rates between now and the end of the year. However, other news and economic reports might produce such movements if they’re shocking enough. In particular, the employment situation report (Dec. 8) is worth watching.

The Fed

Wednesday afternoon saw the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy group, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). And their contents made the lead story in The Wall Street Journal (paywall).

I’m not sure that they merited the attention they received. Of course, the minutes were important. They always are.

But they said precisely what everyone thought they would. Namely, most committee members favored slowing the pace at which they’d hike rates in the future. Well, duh!

At the minuted meeting, they’d just voted for the fourth consecutive 75-basis-point (0.75%) rise. And those hikes together represented the sharpest increase in rates since the early 1980s. More importantly, they’d been consistently signaling a smaller (probably 0.5%) rise in December for what feels like ages.

That’s probably why mortgage rates barely moved in response to the Fed minutes on Wednesday afternoon. Nobody was surprised by them.

For a fuller picture of what’s happening to mortgage rates, please read the weekend edition of this report. Nothing much has changed since that was written.

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Nov. 23 (early for Thanksgiving) report put that same weekly average at 6.58%, almost imperceptibly down from the previous week’s 6.61%.

Recently, Freddie stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also moved later the time of day at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And, from now on, we'll be updating this section on Fridays.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on Nov. 22, the MBA’s on Nov. 23 and Freddie’s on Oct. 21. Freddie now publishes its forecasts quarterly and its figures can quickly become stale.

ForecasterQ4/22Q1/23Q2/23Q3/23
Fannie Mae7.0%7.0% 6.9%6.7%
Freddie Mac6.8%6.6% 6.5%6.4%
MBA6.7%6.2% 5.6%5.4%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Peter Warden
Authored By: Peter Warden

The Mortgage Reports editor

Peter Warden has been writing for a decade about mortgages, personal finance, credit cards, and insurance. His work has appeared across a wide range of media. He lives in a small town with his partner of 25 years.